UMass Poll Shows Substantial Lead For Biden

Source: UMass News and Media 

A new UMass national poll of 1500 likely voters shows Joe Biden holding a 9-point advantage over incumbent Donald Trump (53% to 44%) in the race for the presidency, garnering support across a wide range of demographics. Only about 1% of the sample said they were undecided. Meanwhile, early voting is being adopted by a significant majority of those planning to cast ballots.

Biden leads Trump among many voter profiles including men, 49% to 47%; women, 56% to 40%; Blacks, 86% to 12%; Latinos, 67% to 28%; and Asians, 59% to 29%. The president receives strong support from white working class voters, holding a 67% to 31% advantage over the former Democratic vice president. Trump also has a lead among all white voters, 51% to 45%. 

“The coalition of women, young people, racial minorities, and highly educated voters that propelled Obama to victory in 2008 and 2016 is showing up for Biden in 2020,” says Tatishe Nteta, Director of the poll and UMass associate professor of political science. “Biden has a stranglehold over these groups in his contest against President Trump, and this bodes well for his chances on Election Night.” In addition, Nteta says, Biden’s lead among men is notable. “For decades, men have consistently supported the Republican candidate for president. In 2016, candidate Trump soundly beat Hillary Clinton among men and rode this support to the White House. If Biden wins the male vote next week, it is likely that Biden will become the nation’s 46th president.”

“Our results are consistent with other national polls showing a stable and substantial lead for Joe Biden,” says Alex Theodoridis, UMass Associate Professor of political science and associate director of the poll. “There is precious little promising news for President Trump and his supporters in these numbers. Trump only leads among a handful of demographic subsets (whites, those over 55 and voters who did not attend college). Even those advantages tend to be modest. Biden, on the other hand, has huge leads among women, young people, Black, Latino, or Asian-American voters, those who pursued higher education, and even voters who describe themselves as ideologically moderate.”

A Surge in Early Voting
Early voting stands out as a major political development this fall. The UMass poll found that 68% planned on voting before Election Day on November 3. This includes vote by mail, 34%; in-person before Election Day, 24%; and absentee vote (due to travel, sickness, etc.), 10%. The number planning to vote in person on Election Day stands at 32%. Among all respondents who indicated they were going to vote early, 70% had already cast their general election ballot.

“The Republican Party better pray for no snow storms or hurricanes on Election Day,” says Ray La Raja, UMass Professor of Political Science and associate director of the poll. “Close to 50% of Republican voters expect to vote in person on that day compared to just about 20% of Democrats, many of whom will have already voted.” 

A majority of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the overall state of the country. When asked if the United States is better off today than it was four years ago, 59% responded no; 35% said yes; and 6% were not sure. When asked if they are individually better off today than four years ago, the response is split: 46% said yes, 46% said no, with 8% were not sure.

 Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll