Widespread Disillusionment And Fear Among Likely Voters As Election Day Nears

Source:  UMass News And Media

Fear and disillusionment are widespread among the American electorate as the country nears Election Day, according to a UMass poll of 1500 likely voters. 61% of voters said they are “very afraid” if their presidential candidate loses the election and 23% said they were “somewhat afraid.”

The Republican and Democratic parties both receive failing marks from the public. When asked “how well or poorly” the two major parties represent people like themselves, 45% of poll respondents said the GOP represents them very poorly, and 13% somewhat poorly. The Democratic Party hardly fares better. 38% said the Democratic Party represents them very poorly, and only 19% said “very well.” 

“While much attention has been given to the white working class and their increasing support for the Republican Party, we also find that 51% of likely voters making over $100,000 believe that the Republican Party has done a very poor job in representing people like them,” says Tatishe Nteta, Director of the poll and UMass Associate Professor of Political Science. “The Republican Party may no longer be home to the nation’s wealthiest citizens, a shocking turn of events for a party that has long commanded the loyalty of this group.” 

When asked how angry they will be if their presidential candidate loses, 53% say very angry and 22% somewhat angry. 66% of Biden supporters say they will be very angry, and 16% somewhat angry, if Biden loses. If Trump loses, 39% of Trump supporters say they will be very angry and 29% somewhat angry.

“Decades of research have shown that anger leads citizens to show up in droves on election day and the anger gap between supporters of Biden and Trump does not bode well for Trump’s chances on election night,” Nteta says. 

Respondents perceived that particular groups were likely to commit violence if their preferred candidate lost. Twenty-nine percent of those surveyed perceived that white supremacists were most likely to commit violence, followed by Antifa (21%) and the Black Lives Matter movement (15%). Only small proportions of those polled believed the Proud Boys (9%), Democrats (9%), militias (8%), Republicans (7%), or anarchists (3%) were most likely to commit violence. 

“These poll results capture the fear and loathing that characterize American politics during this time of hyper-polarization,” says Alex Theodoridis, UMass Associate Professor of Political Scienceand Associate Director of the poll. “What we see going into Tuesday is a populace so divided and so tense as to make it a veritable tinderbox. But our survey does not predict a particularly close election, which I hope reduces the chance that the results will ignite widespread political violence. It is clear, though, that the United States is in need of substantial political healing if our democracy is to regain its health going forward.”Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll