Poll Finds Majority of Baystate Residents Support Four of Five Ballot Questions

Residents Evenly Spilt on Question About Legalizing Psychedelics

Source: UMass News and Media

A majority of Massachusetts residents support four of the five questions put to voters on Election Day, including eliminating the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System (MCAS) tests as a requirement for high school graduation, and are evenly split on whether certain psychedelic substances should be legalized and regulated, according to a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll.

The poll of 700 residents of the commonwealth conducted October 3-10 also found that 75% of respondents are concerned about the possibility of violence in the U.S. associated with the 2024 presidential election.

“With only a few weeks to go until Election Day, voters in the commonwealth are poised to make significant legislative changes through the ballot process with majorities of voters expressing support for ending the MCAS requirement to graduate (53%), allowing unionization for transportation network drivers (58%), and increasing the minimum wage for tipped workers (61%),” said Tatishe Nteta, Provost Professor of Political Science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “Across these three questions, most residents have seemingly made up their minds, with an average of only 13% of respondents still undecided as to these potential changes. For supporters of these ballot questions, Election Day cannot come soon enough.”

Question 1 – Auditing the Legislature
The poll found that among all five ballot questions presented to voters, the proposal giving the state auditor the authority to audit the Massachusetts State Legislature enjoys the broadest support, with only 11% of respondents opposed.

“Most residents think the legislature needs more accountability. A significant majority – 63% – appears to support Question 1. Men are especially in favor of this change,” explains Raymond La Raja, Professor of Political Science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “But voters are likely in store for a disappointment. The measure appears to be a violation of the state constitution according to the Attorney General and may be invalidated by the Massachusetts courts. If that happens, whatever cynicism some voters have for the legislature may only intensify.”

Question 2 – Eliminating MCAS for High School Graduation
Most respondents surveyed support eliminating the requirement that a student pass the MCAS tests to receive a high school diploma. 

“A majority of voters are saying there should be exceptions to the rule that Massachusetts students must pass the MCAS to graduate from high school. Fifty-three percent are in favor, with 36% opposed and 11% not sure,” La Raja said. “But voters seem split on the likely impact. Thirty-one percent say students will be able to move into the workforce more quickly without the MCAS requirement, while 29% say it will result in declining educational standards in the state. Sixteen percent say it will do both. Women (61%) seem much more in favor of eliminating the requirement than men (44%).”

Nteta adds, “As Bay Staters are bombarded with advertisements, phone calls and emails on Question 2, a stunning few are aware of the positions of groups and prominent elected officials on the future of the MCAS in the state. Majorities of respondents indicate that they don’t know the position of Governor Maura Healey, the state’s secretary of education or the Massachusetts AFL-CIO. In what is likely music to the ears of the Massachusetts Teachers Association, a plurality of residents (44%) correctly identifies the teachers union as in favor of Question 2.”

Question 3 – Unionization for Transportation Network Drivers
By a margin of 58% to 27%, the poll found support for giving transportation network drivers, such as those who drive for Uber and Lyft, the option to form unions. 

“Our poll suggests that Massachusetts residents are poised to grant drivers for ride-share apps the right to unionize and collectively bargain for wages, working conditions and benefits,” says Jesse Rhodes, Professor of Political Science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Given that Massachusetts has a long tradition of strong unions, it’s no huge surprise that many commonwealth residents want to grant collective bargaining rights to these workers. This fits with residents’ long concern with ensuring that workers can protect themselves in the workplace.”

Rhodes notes that younger residents (ages 18-29) are more likely to support Question 3 with 72% in favor, compared with 58% of 30–54-year-olds and 51% of those 55 and older.

“This likely reflects the fact that young people are most likely to be both ride-share users and drivers,” he explains. “Young people are likely most attuned to the special challenges that ride-share app drivers face in the workplace, and most sympathetic to the interests of these workers.”

Question 4 – Psychedelics
The poll finds that an equal share of respondents – 43% – favor or oppose legalizing natural psychedelic substances for growth, possession and use by people over age 21.

“Massachusetts residents are evenly split on the ballot question to legalize and regulate psychedelics, and a significant share (14%) remain unsure how they will vote,” Rhodes says. “This may well reflect the fact that the issue is complex, and the ballot question is complicated, involving many issues. Unsure commonwealth voters will likely determine the outcome of this ballot question.”

“This ballot question only enjoys majoritarian support among a small number of demographic and political groups in the state that include young people, Democrats, liberals and Biden voters,” Nteta adds. “Older voters, independents, Republicans and parents are particularly opposed to this ballot question, and given the high turnout among these groups in particular, this does not bode well for those who seek to make Massachusetts the third state in the nation to make these substances legal.”

Question 5 – Minimum Wage for Tipped Workers
The poll found that 61% of respondents favor and 27% oppose gradually increasing the state’s minimum hourly wage of $6.75 for tipped workers, so that it reaches the full minimum wage by 2029.

“Not surprisingly, young people under 30 – who tend to be in tipped worker jobs – favor this a lot more (74%) than people over 55 years old (51%),” La Raja comments. “We can’t tell if older people are less likely to favor it because it breaks with tradition, or whether they fear a bigger bill at the restaurant.”

Support for Ballot Initiative Process
By an overwhelming margin of 76% to 4%, the survey shows Massachusetts residents support the use of ballot questions to pass constitutional amendments and make state laws – a power granted to voters since 1919.

“The nation’s founders may not have liked direct democracy, but Massachusetts voters do. Three of four voters support the ballot initiative process, which gives them the power to bypass the Legislature and submit their own laws and constitutional amendments,” La Raja noted. “Critics of the process say voters don’t have enough information or expertise to make policies this way. But 43% of Massachusetts residents disagree with this argument, while only 28% agree (and 29% don’t have an opinion). But paradoxically, 41% of respondents agree that the process is controlled by special interests, and roughly the same percentage also believe the wording of ballot questions is too complicated.”

Nteta added, “In what could be read as a stunning rebuke of the work of the state legislature and Governor Maura Healey, close to 8 in 10 residents support the use of ballot questions to make laws and a similar proportion believe that the ballot process is a means by which voters can address issues that elected officials fail to address. In a year in which both the legislature and governor Healey came under fire for the lack of movement on housing, immigration and climate change, future elections may feature a growth in the use of the ballot process to help solve problems that the state’s elected officials are not interested or inclined to tackle.”

Political Violence
“In the wake of the violence occurring in the aftermath of the 2020 election and former President Donald Trump’s repeated assertion that he will not concede the election if he is defeated, it comes as no surprise that 3 in 4 residents (75%) of the state are concerned about the possibility of violence occurring in the nation,” Nteta says.

However, only 39% of respondents are concerned about election violence in the commonwealth. 

“Bay State residents are not especially concerned about election-related violence in Massachusetts,” notes Alexander Theodoridis, Associate Professor of Political Science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “But, the vast majority of respondents, and especially Democrats (87% compared with 55% of Republicans) are concerned about violence at the national level. This is in line with heightened anxiety about election-related violence among Americans generally. It speaks to a populace very much on-edge as it heads to the polls.”

Presidential Election
The poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a considerable edge over Trump (56%-30%) among Massachusetts residents.

“Harris holds a sizeable lead of 26 percentage points over Trump with the 2024 presidential election only a few weeks away,” Nteta observes. “While Trump continues to ride a wave of popularity that could put him the White House for a second term, here in the Bay State, Trump and the MAGA movement continue to fail to elicit much support with less than a third of voters expressing support for a Trump presidency. While recent political history has taught us that anything is possible, a Trump loss in the commonwealth is as close to a certainty in American politics.”

Twenty-six percent of respondents said the economy is the most important election issue, followed by “the health of our democracy” (24%) and immigration (18%).

“Over 30 years ago, Democratic political strategist James Carville famously declared that the 1992 election was about the ‘economy, stupid.’ In 2024, the economy remains top of the mind for people in Massachusetts, as a little more than a quarter of respondents selected the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming election,” Nteta commented. “In response to the increasingly authoritarian declarations of former President Trump, prominent Democrats from President Joe Biden to Vice President Harris have made the case that democracy is on the 2024 ballot, in hopes of mobilizing core Democratic constituencies and retaining control of the White House. Their efforts to center the issue of democracy in the campaign have seemingly paid off.”

U.S. Senate Contest
The poll found Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren with a comfortable 22-percentage point lead (56%-34%) over Republican challenger John Deaton.

“As the incumbent, Warren enjoys considerable name recognition and reputation advantages. Massachusetts residents view her as better able to handle the state’s major issues and think she will provide better representation to most groups in the commonwealth,” Rhodes said. “Warren enjoys particularly strong support among women, younger voters and those with higher levels of education – all core Democratic constituencies. In a strong Democratic state, having the support of key Democratic constituencies is a very good sign for the Democratic senator.”

“With two debates being held this week, Deaton will have his best opportunity to make his case to the voters of the commonwealth,” Nteta added. “Whether Deaton will be able to convince enough voters to abandon their support for Warren remains to be seen, but if Deaton performs well on the debate stage, then he may have a chance to make this election more competitive.”

However, Nteta says Deaton faces “long odds” of pulling off an upset, noting that even on issues that are typically winners for Republicans, Warren has the advantage.

“On issues traditionally owned by the Democrats, such as reproductive rights, education, and health care, voters believe that Warren would better handle these issues by large margins,” he said. “Surprisingly, on issues where Republicans have historically done well, such as taxes, immigration, and crime, voters also prefer Warren. Even on the regulation of cryptocurrency, an issue at the heart of Deaton’s campaign, voters view Warren as the preferred candidate.”