UMass Poll: Housing Tops List of Concerns for Bay State Voters as Economic Fears Increase
The Poll also FInds Bay State Residents Support the “Millionaire Tax” and Favor Legislative Transparency
Source: UMass News & Media
Housing is far and away the most important issue on the minds of Massachusetts voters, who also express deep concerns about the nation’s economy and their own economic situations, according to the findings of a new University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll.
The poll found that just 30% of respondents believe the national economy is in “excellent” or “good” condition, the lowest mark since April 2023 and 10 points lower than an October 2024 UMass/WCVB Poll, and the 40% of respondents who say their own economic situation is “excellent” or “good” is the lowest since the poll started asking the question in November 2021.
“In 2024, Donald Trump rode a wave of economic discontent straight to the White House. Voters tired of rising costs and stagnant wages voted for Trump, who promised a return to the economic prosperity seen in his first term in office,” says Tatishe Nteta, Provost Professor of Political Science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. “One month into the second Trump administration, residents of the state remain pessimistic about the national economy. With the threat of tariffs, the potential return of high inflation, and a declining stock market, it is no wonder that assessments of the nation’s economic well-being in the Bay State are declining. Whether President Trump can regain the ‘Midas touch’ and make the American economy great again will likely define the success or failure of the second Trump presidency.”
Even though the poll’s respondents have a dreary view of the nation’s economic outlook, and a dimming view of their own, a slim majority still believes the Massachusetts economy is performing well.
“Massachusetts residents have a sour view of the state of the nation’s economy, and if anything, their perceptions have become more negative over the past year,” says Jesse Rhodes, Professor of Political Science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll. “Although perceptions of the Massachusetts economy are more positive, residents are about evenly split between those who believe the economy is excellent or good (51% total), on one hand, and those who believe it is fair or poor (49%), on the other. Within the state, concerns about the high cost of living – particularly housing – continue to top residents’ lists of concerns, helping to explain why so many express negative attitudes about the economy.”
Rhodes continues, explaining that “Massachusetts residents are clearly hurting, as concerns about housing costs and the overall cost of living in the state top their list of the most important issues facing the state. Residents are pessimistic about the economic future, with majorities expecting increases in grocery prices (80%), housing (73%) and rental costs (78%), utility bills (76%), and taxes (60%) in the coming year. This pessimism is bad news for the state’s economy, as negative expectations can lead residents to cut spending, affecting downstream investment and hiring. A major challenge for policymakers is to help restore residents’ economic confidence in order to encourage behaviors that promote growth.”
“With record home prices, rents continuing to skyrocket and a decline in available and affordable homes, it is no surprise that the issue of housing is most frequently identified as the most important issue facing the commonwealth,” Nteta says. “The issue of housing is one that voters most desire the governor and legislature to tackle, and one that very much is on the top of the minds of residents across the state. The effort to defeat this problem will likely define the legacy of Gov. Maura Healey and could determine her electoral future in the state and beyond. Residents of the state are waiting and hoping that Healey can do what many of her predecessors have failed to do – help to provide affordable and accessible housing to the many residents of the Bay State who desperately want to stay in the commonwealth, but given current market conditions may not be able to do so.”
Rhodes points to rising inflation as one of the main drivers of negative views on the economy. “Before 2021, Americans enjoyed decades of low inflation,” he says. “But since that time, inflation has been a persistent problem and, after a brief reprieve in 2024, it appears to be increasing again. This development is having a strong negative effect on Massachusetts residents’ beliefs about the economy and perceptions about the state in general. Inflation is a uniquely corrosive force that undermines people’s optimism about the economy and government.”
Raymond La Raja, Professor of Political Science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, sees the similarities between the respondents’ views of the economy and their overall views of the directions of the country and commonwealth.
“Massachusetts voters have been pessimistic about the direction of the nation for a while, and since Trump won in November there has been an uptick in this feeling that things are going in the wrong direction,” La Raja says. “Right before the election, 58% said the nation was on the wrong track and now 64% think so. Women are especially inclined to think the nation is on the wrong track (68%). Meanwhile, Massachusetts voters are less pessimistic about the direction of their own state, even though they don’t necessarily see a rosy picture. In the months since the election, there was a slight decline in people thinking the commonwealth is on the wrong track, from 41% to 36%. Some voters in the state who are worried about the policies and politics of the Trump administration probably have a greater appreciation for federalism and living in Massachusetts.”
“With the state facing myriad challenges that include incorporating recent migrants, a housing crisis and deteriorating roads, bridges and tunnels, it is no shock that many are questioning the direction of the state,” Nteta adds. “Today, only 4 in 10 residents think that things are going in the right direction in the state, the lowest mark since June 2022. This relative lack of enthusiasm for the state’s prospects is particularly felt by the working class in the state, as only one-quarter of residents with a high school degree or less and 30% of those with incomes less than $40,000 believe that the state is moving in the right direction.”
Who’s to Blame for the Housing Crisis – and How Can We Fix It?
Asked their views of who – or what – is responsible for the rise in housing costs, nearly one-quarter (23%) of the University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll respondents blamed interest rates, while landlords (17%), housing contractors and builders (17%), the state Legislature (16%) and local governments (15%) shouldered nearly equal blame. Only 7% said that Gov. Healey is responsible for the situation.
“The buck stops where?” Nteta asks. “With the housing crisis on the top of the minds of residents of the state and legislative efforts to address the housing shortage unable to meet widespread demand for affordable housing, many would think that Gov. Healey would foot the blame for this predicament. Yet, interest rates are viewed as the most responsible for the housing crunch with Healey largely viewed as not responsible for the state’s housing woes. With the 2026 election on the horizon, it is likely that the governor’s Republican challengers will make housing a primary issue, but it remains to be seen whether voters will hold Healey accountable if the housing crisis continues.”
Nteta looks at the broad support for the slate of potential remedies to the housing crisis and sees the potential for successful legislative consensus moving forward, should the state government choose to work toward one.
“In the midst of racial, gender, class and generational conflicts that have come to define our politics, it is somewhat surprising that on the issue of housing we find widespread agreement in support of a range of fixes to the state’s housing crunch,” he says. “Strong majorities of men and women, young and old, people of color and whites, and working and middle-class residents all favor policies such as rent control, tax breaks to build affordable housing, the elimination of broker fees, and taxing real estate transactions above $1 million to fix the state’s housing woes. With elected officials on Beacon Hill working hard to address this crisis, our results suggest that these legislative efforts would be widely popular in the Bay State.”
The ‘Millionaire Tax’ and Legislative Transparency
The University of Massachusetts Amherst/WCVB Poll also asked respondents their views of the “Millionaire Tax” two years after it became law, as well as their thoughts regarding increasing the level of transparency of the state government.
“Two-thirds of Massachusetts voters (66%) think the ‘Millionaire Tax,’ which goes to support public education and transportation, is good for the state, with just 13% opposing it,” La Raja says. “Republican voters are less supportive, but more of them think it is good (38%) than bad (33%).”
Respondents were also asked how to spend the funds generated by the tax, which are directed to support public education and transportation.
“We gave voters six choices for how to spend funds for the ‘Millionaire Tax,’ letting them rank their top three,” La Raja says. “The top choice was to upgrade the state’s roads and bridges (31%), followed by an increase in state funding for K-12 public education (25%). The third most favored was increasing the minimum salaries for K-12 public school teachers (21%). Financing public transportation projects was a lower priority, although the vast majority of Massachusetts residents do not use public transit, even if it potentially lightens traffic for auto users.”
The poll also asked respondents about their views on proposals to make state government more transparent by requiring public reports of legislative committee votes and greater responsiveness to public records requests. Rhodes points to the overwhelming support for government transparency across all respondents as a way to increase residents’ trust in state officials.
“Massachusetts residents strongly support policies that make the decisions and processes of state government more transparent,” he says. “They want more information about state legislative committee deliberations and votes (81%) and want state officials to be more responsive to public information requests (68%). A lot of this is about trust. Today, just over half of Massachusetts residents (53%) express distrustful attitudes toward the state government. When trust toward the government is underwater, it should be no surprise that residents are demanding policies that they think will allow them to keep a closer eye on state elected officials. However, whether these policies will increase trust in the future is unknown.”
Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll